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Archived version · 2026-05-11

State at the H14 / H15 / H18 deploy, before the H19 verdict and the Deployment Stack assembly: all six H12–H17 extension hypotheses had been tested (H17 PASS; H12, H13, H14, H16 marginal; H15 fail) and H18 candidate-pool pruning had landed FAIL; the prediction-vs-decision partition had been promoted to the program's central methodological finding with one sufficiency clause (from H18: topology has to add a degree of freedom the standard approach lacks); the Topology Deployment Stack had been re-specified to map → select → diversify → monitor → pause/refit (the prune stage collapsed into select) but was not yet built, and H19 (live-drift monitoring) was still listed as its remaining open hypothesis; Paper H had been added; the changelog archive links resolved; the codebase panel showed 61,861 lines / 207 files with a fifteen-group module breakdown.

This is a summary of what the topology-roadmap page was at this version, not a full visual snapshot. The live page has since moved on; the changelog index lists every version, and the live page is always the current state.

What this version was

  • Phase 07 (extended directions) marked COMPLETE, all six H12–H17 hypotheses tested. H14, MARGINAL (a geometric-outlier overfit-flag is a triage complement to the classical detectors, not a replacement). H15, FAIL (topology is reliably worse than the classical ex-ante features at predicting catastrophic strategy failure, held-out C-index ≈ 0.57–0.60 vs 0.77–0.79). (H12 had landed MARGINAL, the regime detector itself is null but the cohort-rotation policy that consumes it works; ships as Paper F.)
  • Phase 20 H18 (candidate-pool pruning), FAIL: there is no topology-aware-pruning step that improves on running the H4 portfolio constructor against the full backtest corpus; `topo-prune` survives only as an optional human-attention shortlist diagnostic. The Deployment Stack pipeline's `prune` stage collapses into `select`. H19 (live-drift monitoring) was the last open hypothesis.
  • The prediction-vs-decision partition promoted to the program's central methodological finding, with one sufficiency clause from H18 (topology has to add a degree of freedom the standard approach lacks). Stated in the dek, the central-claim text, and a new top finding; a new methodology paper (Paper H) captures it.
  • Phase 06 re-specified as the Topology Deployment Stack, the trader-facing pipeline map → select → diversify → monitor → pause/refit, built entirely from the robust geometric-outlier primitives; H19 (live-drift monitoring) was its remaining open hypothesis. Output portfolio grew to eight papers; the software package was named.
  • Findings section gained five new text-only entries (the prediction-vs-decision partition as the central finding, the H12–H17-extension-complete summary, H14, H15, H18). Changelog archive route files added for v2 / v3 / v4.
  • Roadmap statuses updated (Phase 07 marked done); the compute-and-support note rewritten.
Topology roadmap, archived version 2026-05-11 | Daru Finance